Higher energy and housing prices boosted overall U.S. inflation in December, a sign that the Federal Reserve’s drive to slow inflation to its 2 percent target will likely remain a bumpy one.
Thursday’s report from the Labor Department showed that overall prices rose 0.3 percent from November and 3.4 percent from 12 months earlier. Those gains exceeded the previous 0.1 percent monthly rise and the 3.1 percent annual inflation in November. The December figures came in slightly above economists’ forecasts.
Housing costs accounted for more than half the increase in prices from November to December. Energy costs, led by electricity and gasoline, along with food prices, also contributed to the increase.
Core prices — excluding energy and food — were up 3.9 percent from a year earlier — the mildest such pace since May 2021 and down from November’s 4 percent year-over-year gain. Economists pay particular attention to core prices because, by excluding costs that typically jump around from month to month, they are seen as a better guide to the likely path of inflation.
Overall inflation has cooled more or less steadily since hitting a four-decade high of 9.1 percent in mid-2022. Still, the persistence of still-elevated inflation helps explain why polls show many Americans are dissatisfied with the economy
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A key factor is the public’s exasperation with higher prices. Though the inflation rate has been falling more or less steadily for a year and a half, the lingering financial and psychological effects of the worst bout of inflation in four decades have soured many Americans on the economy. Prices are still 17 percent higher than they were before the inflation surge began and are still rising.
Pollsters and economists say there has never been as wide a gap between the underlying health of the economy and public perception. Wage gains have outpaced inflation in recent months, meaning that Americans’ average after-inflation take-home pay is up. Yet a poll conducted in November by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, about three-quarters of respondents described the economy as poor. Two-thirds said their expenses had risen.
The Federal Reserve, which began aggressively raising interest rates in March 2022 to try to slow the pace of price increases, wants to reduce year-over-year inflation to its 2 percent target level. And there are solid reasons for optimism that inflationary pressure will continue to recede in the coming months.
Will the government be able to slow inflation?
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported this week, for example, that consumers now expect inflation to come in at just 3 percent over the next year, the lowest one-year forecast since January 2021. That’s important because consumer expectations are themselves considered a telltale sign of future inflation: When Americans fear that prices will keep accelerating, they will typically rush to buy things sooner rather than later. That surge of spending tends to fuel more inflation.
But that nasty cycle does not appear to be happening.
And when Fed officials discussed the inflation outlook at their most recent meeting last month, they noted some hopeful signs. In particular, they noted an end to the supply chain backlogs that had caused parts shortages and inflation pressures.
Many economists have suggested that slowing inflation from 9 percent to around 3 percent was easier to achieve than reaching the Fed’s 2 percent target.
“Inflationary pressures, while generally inching lower, remain stubbornly higher than expectations as the so-called ‘last mile’ requires more time to reach the final goal,″ said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
The December U.S. jobs report that was issued last week contained some cautionary news for the Fed: Average hourly wages rose 4.1 percent from a year earlier, up slightly from 4 percent in November. And 676,000 people left the workforce, reducing the proportion of adults who either have a job or are looking for one to 62.5 percent, the lowest level since February.
That is potentially concerning because when fewer people look for work, employers usually find it harder to fill jobs. As a result, they may feel compelled to sharply raise pay to attract job-seekers — and then pass on their higher labor costs to their customers through higher prices. That’s a cycle that can perpetuate inflation.
The Western Journal has reviewed this Associated Press story and may have altered it prior to publication to ensure that it meets our editorial standards.
