CORRECTION, Dec. 11, 2023: Two GOP senators aren’t running for re-election in 2024: Utah’s Mitt Romney and Indiana’s Mike Braun. An earlier version of this article was incorrect on that point.
Former President Donald Trump warned a pair of Republican senators that they could be looking at a tougher reelection battle next year than they’re anticipating.
The heads-up to Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas came Sunday in a post to Truth Social, the platform owned by Trump’s media company.
“So interesting that the Democrats are looking hard at the Senate races in both Missouri and Texas,” Trump wrote in his post.
“Josh and Ted must be very careful, stranger things have happened!!!” he added.
The impetus behind Sunday’s warning was not immediately apparent, but Politico noted in July that Cruz and Hawley, along with Florida’s Rick Scott, were particularly tempting targets for the Democrats in 2024.
However, that report indicated that the Democratic Party’s first priority when it comes to the 2024 senatorial elections will be defending the seats they already hold.
“Hold the incumbents, that’s my main focus,” Michigan’s Sen. Gary Peters, who runs the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Politico at the time.
“We obviously want to pick up as many seats as we possibly can … if there’s an opportunity to win, we’re going to take it,” he added.
Do you think a red wave will occur in the 2024 election?
The 2024 Senatorial election picture heavily favors Republicans, as Newsweek noted Sunday, with Democrats defending 20 seats compared to Republicans defending only half that many.
On top of that, three independents who generally side with Democrats — Maine’s Angus King, Vermont’s Bernie Sanders, and Arizona’s Kyrsten Sinema — are up for re-election as well.
Already a quarter of the Democrats in those 20 seats have announced their retirement, rather than campaign to hold their seats.
Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan was the first to announce her retirement in January. She was followed in May by Maryland’s Sen. Ben Cardin and Delaware’s Tom Carper.
Laphonza Butler was appointed to the Senate by California Gov. Gavin Newsome in October to fill the seat left vacant by Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s death. Butler did not file to run for re-election.
Most recently, and perhaps most dramatically, Sen. Joe Manchin from solidly red West Virginia announced in November that he was retiring from the Senate, but did not immediately announce his plans.
Only two Republican incumbents, Utah’s Mitt Romney and Indiana’s Mike Braun, have announced they will not run next year. Romney is retiring, while Braun is running for governor.
“The 2024 Senate map was always going to be tough for Democrats and Manchin resigning makes it harder,” Democratic pollster Carly Cooperman has previously told Newsweek.
“Texas and Florida are the two opportunities Democrats have for picking up seats next cycle, but both of those races will be tough,” she added.
